magazine archive
magazine archive
Russ Mould
The key things that could tell you if a US recession is coming
Thursday 30 Jun 2022US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell in his testimony to the US Senate Banking Committee in Washington declared a risk that America is heading into a recession. This represents refreshing honesty, especially for the head of an organisation with an unbroken record of failing to accurately predict any...
US earnings estimates are being slashed as more bad news piles up
Thursday 16 Jun 2022The Federal Reserve, like so many other Western central banks, remains on the horns of a dilemma. The US central bank can either let inflation run unchecked and run the risk that damages the economy as consumers’ pockets and corporations’ margins feel the pinch, or it can raise interest rates to...
Why oil shares seem unshaken by the windfall tax
Wednesday 01 Jun 2022Bruce Kovner may not be the best-known hedge fund manager in the world but, as the founder of Caxton Associates, he is one of the most successful. He gives little away in public, but it is worth tracking down his few pronouncements and one of this column’s favourites is his comment, ‘What I am...
Why it’s now looking like the usual market cycle is about to repeat
Thursday 19 May 2022Robert Rhea’s outline of a bull market in his tome, The Dow Theory , which dates back to 1932, still seems relevant today. He said: ‘There are three principal phases of a bull market: the first is represented by reviving confidence in the future of business; the second is the response of stock...
Japan shock: Why the yen’s plunge really matters
Thursday 05 May 2022In 2013, Kyle Bass, the Texas-based founder and manager of hedge fund Hayman Capital, gave an interview in which he tersely stated, ‘I would buy gold in yen and go to sleep for 10 years.’ The case for short yen/long gold was based upon the tattered state of Japan’s public finances, the country’s...
Are you worried about a recession coming? These are the signs to watch
Thursday 21 Apr 2022Central bankers, politicians, company management teams and the public continue to fret about the cost of oil. A high oil price is in effect a tax, as it increases costs and squeezes margins and cash flow at companies. It also crimps consumers’ disposable income and their ability to spend. An oil...
The impact of a US bond market blitz on stocks and the economy
Thursday 07 Apr 2022It was former US president Bill Clinton’s economic adviser James Carville who said that if he were reincarnated, he would like to come back as the bond market because then ‘you can intimidate everybody.’ Now that US bond yields are surging and prices are falling, stock market investors need to...
Just how far could commodity prices go?
Thursday 24 Mar 2022And so Xiang Guangda, founder of Chinese nickel firm Tsingshan, joins an infamous list of firms and traders who have had their trousers pulled right down when trading commodities. But neither the humbling experience nor its scale – a reported $8 billion paper loss – are as rare as you might think...
Why junk bonds suggest the global economy is in a mess
Thursday 10 Mar 2022No-one, but no-one, knows what the ultimate ramifications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be, looked at from the broad perspective of international politics or the much narrower – and less important – one of investments. Commodity markets are in foment but stock and bond markets are so far...
The big market pay debate
Thursday 24 Feb 2022Calls from both the Bank of England’s governor, Andrew Bailey, and its chief economist, Huw Pill, for wage restraint do not sit easily alongside the current headline inflation figures. Nor does Unilever’s ( ULVR ) statement (10 Feb) that it raised prices by 4.9% in the fourth quarter of last year...