magazine archive
magazine archive
Russ Mould
History shows US stocks do well in the third year of a presidential term
Thursday 17 Nov 2022The rapturous response offered by equity and bond markets to a lower-than-expected US inflation print last week (10 Nov) only served to reinforce the importance of the debate over whether or when the Federal Reserve and other central banks will pause or pivot on monetary policy. The mere whiff of...
How to measure the new chancellor’s progress
Thursday 27 Oct 2022South West Surrey MP Jeremy Hunt is the fourth chancellor in four months. Assuming he remains in place under new prime minister Rishi Sunak he is likely to measure success in terms of jobs, economic growth and ultimately opinion polls and then votes when the next general election comes around, in...
Why soggy chip stocks could point to lean times ahead for equities
Thursday 20 Oct 2022Regular readers of this column will be aware of its faith in the Philadelphia Semiconductor index, or SOX, as a valuable indicator on two fronts. First, by dint of their ubiquity, silicon chips offer a good insight to global economic activity. Worldwide sales are expected to exceed $600 billion in...
What just happened with gilts and why Adam Smith nailed it
Thursday 06 Oct 2022It will be of little or no consolation to investors, but the UK is not the only country whose economic foundations are coming into question. The Bank of England has had to intervene in the gilt market, ostensibly to support the value of defined benefit pensions and more generally to bring order to...
The ‘Rule of 20’ is back and it tells us a lot about current markets
Thursday 22 Sep 2022The old saying that buying higher-risk investments guarantees higher returns is one of investing’s biggest fallacies. If buying higher-risk assets ensured higher returns all the time, then they would not be high-risk, would they, because of the certain premium returns? The best way to get the best...
Bond and currency markets will be first test for new UK Prime Minister Liz Truss
Thursday 08 Sep 2022The stock market may well have its say on Liz Truss’ first new policy initiatives as prime minister, but the response of the government bond – or gilt – market and the pound may be more telling, at least in the very short term. Financial markets express their faith – or lack of it – in a country...
Five key tests of the markets’ tone for investors to monitor
Thursday 25 Aug 2022The summertime blues are nowhere to be seen. Share and bond prices are advancing, and oil and commodity prices are ebbing to help take the edge off inflationary concerns and permit markets to convince themselves that central banks are planning a policy pivot, in the form of interest rate cuts,...
Why commodities hold the key to the FTSE 100
Thursday 11 Aug 2022The UK’s first-half results reporting season is drawing to a close, and investors may be feeling they can breathe a sigh of relief. As in the US more firms are beating or meeting expectations and disappointments look relatively few and far between. Smith & Nephew ( SN. ) and Rolls-Royce ( RR...
What is top of the agenda in the latest US earnings season?
Thursday 28 Jul 2022The US second-quarter earnings season is about to reach full throttle. According to research from S&P Global’s Howard Silverblatt, at the time of wrting 31 members of the S&P 500 index have already reported earnings. Of those, 22 beat earnings expectations, while just nine missed and 21 did...
What a new mid-term prime minister means for UK stocks
Thursday 14 Jul 2022In the end Boris Johnson might – just – outlast Theresa May as prime minister, but financial markets are already wondering who will come next and what policies they will bring with them. So far, the UK’s leading stock market indices and sterling are taking the latest ructions in Westminster in...