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Chance of 2016 US rate hike: 64%

Will the US raise interest rates this year?

Stronger economic data will be needed to push the Federal Reserve over the line on an interest rate hike this year.

Market expectations for a December, quarter point increase, as measured by derivatives traded on the CME exchange, are around 64%. In the last 20 years, the Federal Reserve has never raised interest rates unless that figure has stood above 70%, according to the Washington Post.

Non-farm payrolls (7 Oct) did little to bolster the case for a rate rise, registering a slightly below-consensus 156,000 new jobs.

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13 Oct 2016

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