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How bad is Barclays’ trouble with the SFO?

Barclays (BARC) and some of its former executives are being charged with fraud by the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) over deals struck with Qatar during emergency cash calls to avoid entering state ownership at the height of the financial crisis in 2008.
This is the first time that criminal charges have been filed against a UK bank relating to activities during the financial crisis. Does this make Barclays a no-go area for investors?
Ian Gordon, analyst at Investec, maintains his ‘buy’ rating for Barclays with a target price of 245p, suggesting a potential upside of 20% on the current 204.15p price which has been relatively unaffected by the news.
His view is that as Barclays ‘has yet to see an indictment or statement of facts’ it should not impact the bank during the second quarter of this year. He suspects ‘this saga could run for years’.
However, investment bank Berenberg says Barclays may plead guilty to the SFO investigation into the 2008 rights issue. Berenberg says the direct impact of a guilty plea, probably resulting in a fine of around £200m, should be manageable.
However, a guilty plea may open the door for other actions related to the case. This may lead to further uncertainties and costs. The market may be relaxed about this for now but this is something to follow closely. (DS)
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