The stresses and strains of oil market volatility and a Brent crude price at a multi-year high of $90 per barrel are becoming apparent.

With the potential for conflict in commodities-rich Ukraine involving major producer Russia, many observers are expecting oil prices to hit triple digits sooner rather than later.

While ostensibly this is good news for oil and gas companies, firms which offer services to the sector are under severe pressure with Italian group Saipem and seismic survey specialist PGS recently serving up major profit warnings.

The oil services sector is being affected by both global supply chain pressures and the typical lag between a recovery in the oil and gas market and an increase in spending by commodity producers.

While oil prices are high now, they hit rock bottom in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, leading energy firms to slash their budgets. It takes time for that money to come back, and the picture is further complicated by the larger integrated players like the UK’s BP (BP.) and Shell (SHEL) shifting investment into renewables as part of the energy transition.

The surge in oil prices is likely to have a more immediate impact on the cost of fuel, with Air China warning on profit partially because of the rising price of jet fuel.

While many airlines hedge their exposure in this area, higher fuel costs could help dilute any summer recovery for the industry.

In this context it’s no surprise that a higher oil price is seen as a tax on global economic growth, with the surge higher in the market a key contributor to current inflationary pressures too.

Bank of America analysts think there could be a further spike higher in the near term before pressures on supply start to ease: ‘To get to where we are today, the market has drawn OPEC spare capacity down by 2.5 million barrels a day in the past year to just about 3 million barrels per day (excluding Iran).

‘As summer travel peaks, spare capacity could fall an additional one to two million barrels per day, causing oil prices to spike higher. However, rising GCC OPEC capacity, a potential return of Iranian barrels, and non-OPEC supply growth should help ease oil balances over the medium term.’

Once oil prices reach a certain level, demand starts to be eroded but Morgan Stanley now believes this threshold is higher than the $90 per barrel it previously estimated, and this informs its decision to follow other investment banks in lifting its forecast for oil to $100 per barrel.

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