Archived article
Please note that tax, investment, pension and ISA rules can change and the information and any views contained in this article may now be inaccurate.
Extreme fear and capitulation: looking for signs of a market bottom

UK stocks continue to surpass all expectations by being one of the best performing regions for equities around the world.
A near-2% loss for the FTSE 100 index is much better in relative terms than the 28% decline seen for the US Nasdaq or a 15% fall for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng year-to-date. Until recently, UK stocks had been the laggard for global equities for many years. Now a queue is forming to own them.
This year’s slump in US stocks will have taken a lot of investors by surprise. Names like Apple (AAPL:NASDAQ), Amazon (AMZN:NASDAQ), Microsoft (MSFT:NASDAQ) and Tesla (TSLA:NASDAQ) have for some time been the star stocks in investors’ portfolios and many assumed they would retain this status indefinitely.
That’s not the case this year. Telsa has slumped 39%, Amazon has fallen by 37%, Microsoft is trading 24% lower and Apple is down 22%.
‘The UK has been relatively well-placed against the cremation of concept capital year-to-date,’ says James de Uphaugh, manager of Edinburgh Investment Trust (EDIN).
He is referring to the more speculative stocks offering what appears to be an exciting proposition today but no profits for years to come.
These types of stocks have fared even worse than the mega cap US names. For example, exercise bike group Peloton (PTON:NASDAQ) is down 61% year-to-date and electric vehicle specialist Rivian (RIVN:NASDAQ) has fallen by 76%.
In essence, investors were paying too much for US stocks and there has subsequently been a derating in the market. To make matters worse, many of the US mega-caps are saying their growth is slowing or there are challenges ahead, and investors are not happy.
In contrast, UK stocks have been cheap on a relative basis for the past six years because of all the uncertainties around Brexit and the idea that the FTSE 100 contained boring companies with none of the growth seen in the US.
There is now a realisation that UK stocks offer everything people want in the current environment – inflation and rising interest rate beneficiaries, and still relatively cheap valuations.
Even when markets calm down, there is a feeling that investors will pay more attention to valuation in the coming years than they have in the decade just gone. UK stocks could remain interesting even when global markets pick up.
At the time of writing, the CNN Fear & Greed index stood at ‘Extreme Fear’ with investor sentiment poor. While it’s impossible to say when the market will bottom out, it’s worth watching for signs of panic and desperation.
Capitulation means many investors losing patience on falling stocks and selling out. In theory that means all those who wanted to sell would have done so, leaving only buyers who will then drive prices up. And what do you think has been happening in the past three months? Widespread selling.
‘The definition of true capitulation is “investors selling what they love”,’ says Bank of America. ‘Apple is the poster child for the quantitative easing bull market and that stock is now in a bear market.’
Cryptocurrencies have crashed in recent weeks, which is another sign investors who lack patience are cashing in anything they can. Capitulation is arguably happening right in front of our eyes.
Important information:
These articles are provided by Shares magazine which is published by AJ Bell Media, a part of AJ Bell. Shares is not written by AJ Bell.
Shares is provided for your general information and use and is not a personal recommendation to invest. It is not intended to be relied upon by you in making or not making any investment decisions. The investments referred to in these articles will not be suitable for all investors. If in doubt please seek appropriate independent financial advice.
Investors acting on the information in these articles do so at their own risk and AJ Bell Media and its staff do not accept liability for losses suffered by investors as a result of their investment decisions.
Issue contents
Feature
Great Ideas
- Diversified Energy company delivers on dividends and offers an 11%-plus yield
- Disney has recovered some of its magic as subscriber growth beats expectations
- Premier Inn owner looks good if more people choose a staycation
- This fund is ideal for a more cautious investor wanting a bit of income
- Africa’s number two mobile provider delivers on sales and margins
- Building materials firm unfairly punished after latest trading update
Investment Trusts
News
- BT and Vodafone deals add to excitement in once dull telecoms space
- Grocery delivery platform Instacart files $24 billion IPO on the quiet
- Imperial Brands maintains the positive momentum behind the tobacco sector
- Nick Train resists the temptation to change his style after weak period
- Could new Greggs boss Roisin Currie be tempted to reset growth targets?