Friday 24 June marked a gloomy milestone in the metals market as the copper price officially entered ‘bear’ territory, having tumbled more than 20% from its March peak to $8,255 per tonne.

In the past three months, traders seem to have given up hope of a ‘soft landing’ for the US economy as the Federal Reserve continues to ratchet up interest rates to rein in rampant inflation.

Having recently raised rates by three quarters of a percentage point in one fell swoop, Fed chair Jerome Powell didn’t rule out hiking by a full percentage point in the future even though he admitted recession was a possible outcome.

For their part, economists on Wall Street believe the odds of a US recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth – are increasing week by week as the rising cost of food, fuel and housing impacts on consumer spending.

At the same time, China’s repeated attempts to control the spread of Covid with a ‘zero tolerance’ strategy of regional lockdowns is hurting demand in the world’s number one commodity-consuming region.

If history is any guide, the omens aren’t good. In each of the last four recessions dating back to 1990, copper entered a bear market before demand fell, while in 1979/80 it held up as interest rates rose before ultimately collapsing once the global economy contracted.

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