Shares in Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG:NYSE) sizzled on Wall Street after the fast casual restaurants star turn served up forecast-beating second quarter earnings (26 July), with profit growth driven by price hikes.

Though sales in the quarter to 30 June were weaker than expected as inflation squeezed low-income consumers, Chipotle’s capacity to raise prices from a low base is enabling the chain to gain market share from restaurant rivals with higher starting menu prices and therefore less headroom for hikes.

SAME-STORE SPICE

Same-store sales rose 10.1% in the quarter as consumers devoured Chipotle’s competitively priced burritos and tacos, taking net income up to $259.9 million, representing 38% year-on-year growth.

Guided by chairman and CEO Brian Niccol, Chipotle, which takes its moniker from the Nahuatl name for a smoked and dried jalapeño chili pepper and is admired for its digital innovations, delivered adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $9.30.

That was ahead of the $9.04 Wall Street was expecting and Chipotle said it will raise menu prices again in August in order to mitigate the rising costs of packaging and ingredients like avocados, dairy, beef and chicken.

‘We are pleased with our second quarter performance during a period of inflation and consumer uncertainty,’ commented Niccol. ‘Our pricing power and value proposition remain strong as our culinary and food with integrity commitment continues to be a key point of differentiation.’

Despite rampant inflation and a tough macro backdrop, Chipotle guided towards third quarter same-store sales growth in the mid-to-high single digits, including planned price increases in August.

TORTILLA’S PRICE LEVER

With Chipotle successfully flexing its pricing power muscles, Shares sees a positive read-across for its far smaller UK-listed peer Tortilla Mexican Grill (MEX:AIM).

Also known for selling value-for-money burritos and tacos, Tortilla benefits from a simple food offer focused on a small number of readily available basic ingredients. This means Tortilla can flex its menu easily, thereby limiting supply chain risks and reducing specific cost increases.

At 124p, Tortilla’s shares are down more than 30% from last October’s 181p initial public offering (IPO) issue price as investors weigh the challenging consumer spending outlook, though so far at least, the £48 million cap is exhibiting resilience.

The company cooked up 19% like-for-like sales growth for the six months to 3 July 2022 amid robust customer demand for its competitively-priced food and has raised prices to offset more pronounced cost inflation.

Yet its prices remain competitively positioned versus peers, giving Tortilla headroom for further hikes without alienating a younger demographic with voracious appetite for its convenient cuisine.

As broker Liberum noted on 18 July, a Tortilla medium Grilled Chicken Burrito is priced at £6.75 ‘with clear headroom against the competition’, as the Chipotle equivalent costs £9.95 and sells for £9 at Barburrito, the Mexican style fast-casual chain recently acquired by Wagamama owner Restaurant Group (RTN).

Tortilla recently acquired Chilango, which has a largely similar menu but has also developed £5.45 to £9.95 box meals covering a range of vegan, keto and protein boxes which have proved popular.

Another name with pricing levers to pull is Fulham Shore (FUL:AIM), owner of the reasonably priced Franco Manca and The Real Greek chains, which has so far mitigated inflation through menu price hikes, rent negotiations and strong trading for venues in suburban areas and shopping centres.

As executive chairman David Page explained at Fulham Shore’s full year results (21 July): ‘Whilst the first quarter of the year has been characterised by increasing pressures on the UK consumer, our restaurants remain crowded with customers seeking a great experience, quality food, and importantly outstanding value.

‘We will always aim to keep our prices low, driving high customer numbers per site and making for fun, atmospheric restaurants, as well as motivated employees. These key ingredients underpin the board’s confidence in our continued growth.’

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