It may sound like a bold claim, but Akhil Patel argues his book, The Secret Wealth Advantage, can not only help readers anticipate periods of boom and bust but also tell them what to buy and sell when the time comes.

The book presents a socio-economic history of the commercial property cycle and its influence on the economy as a whole, together with a well-articulated argument that without an understanding of that cycle we are almost certainly doomed to repeat the booms and busts of  the past.

The author provides plenty of food for serious thought, from the works of some of the greatest economists of the last couple of centuries to the inside story of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise to power of Vladimir Putin.

Yet the book is also highly readable, with plenty of vivid accounts from ancient Rome via the great crash of the 1920s, the Japanese land boom of the 1980s and the great financial crisis, to modern-day Gaza and, much closer to home, London Bridge, of the ups and down of the property market and ultimately the importance of ‘the law of economic rent’.

The book divides the cycle into four stages: the start; the mid-cycle, which includes an interim peak followed by a mild recession or set-back; the boom, culminating in the summit; and the crash, after which the whole process begins anew.

At each stage, Patel lays out what readers should consider, from the private investor to the business owner and the professional landlord.

Each cycle is facilitated by a new technology – in the past this has included railways, electricity, the personal computer, the internet and the smartphone. Today, we have generative AI (artificial intelligence).

Second, each cycle sees the unveiling of mega-projects which are destined to fail – in 1980s Japan it was the mile-high Millennium Tower designed to be built in Kobe, which never was.

Today, we have The Line in Saudi Arabia, a giga-project ‘which defines what cities of the future will look like’ according to its promoters. A ‘cognitive’ linear city, 500 meters high and 200 meters wide, stretching 170 kilometres and built entirely under mirrored glass, The Line is expected to house 9 million people and run on 100% renewable energy.

Whether your interest is in markets or property, this book offers food for thought and lessons in time for the next cycle.

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