The difficulties in hitting its ambitious growth targets were laid bare in Greggs’ (GRG) third-quarter trading update (3 October) and combined with a lack of earnings upgrades the shares continue to lose the momentum they had built up over late 2022 and into 2023.

There were things to like from the statement, including strong like-for-like sales growth, further market share gains and a welcome easing in the rate of cost inflation, giving management the confidence to reiterate full year guidance. Shore Capital stuck with its year-to-December 2023 forecast for a rise in adjusted pre-tax profits from £148.3 million to £163.2 million.

The sausage roll king said it expects to open between 135 and 145 net new stores (openings minus any closures) in total this year, below its previous forecast of 150 sites. This news is slightly disappointing and suggests achieving medium-term expansion targets could prove a bit more challenging for Greggs amid uncertain economic conditions. It may imply Greggs is encountering rising competition for good shops available at more reasonable rents or could simply be a short-term timing issue.

In any event, achieving this new guidance would still represent a record year for the absolute number of new shops opened as Greggs expands into new locations and relocates shops to better premises within existing catchments, and the FTSE 250 company insisted it sees a strong pipeline ahead for 2024.

Greggs had a total of 2,410 shops trading at 30 September 2023 (1,928 company-managed shops and 482 franchised units) and still has a runway for growth given its big ambitions to have significantly more than 3,000 shops in the UK alone. A challenging target set under the previous management and one which current CEO Roisin Currie is likely to be judged on.

Greggs argues the brand remains underrepresented in retail parks, railway stations, airports, roadsides and supermarkets.

Total sales for the 13 weeks to the end of September were up 20.8%, driven by like-for-like growth of 14.2% and new store openings. Underlying growth was helped by more customer visits, wider adoption of the Greggs App and loyalty scheme, and increased evening trade.

Delivery sales are among the growth opportunities available to Greggs, which had previously highlighted ‘good progress’ in the first half in ‘improving operational service levels’ through its existing partnership with Just Eat.

Greggs is stepping up its home-delivery offering, having begun an accelerated roll-out on the Uber Eats platform across 500 of its stores alongside its existing service with Just Eat, with further expansion planned for next year.

Despite its seeming ubiquity, Greggs’ share of the competitive food-on-the-go market remains fairly small and there are still consumers who don’t have convenient access to its offering.

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