The latest house price surveys from Halifax and Nationwide – two of the UK’s largest mortgage lenders – should have investors in developers breaking out the champagne, yet stocks such as Persimmon (PSN) and Taylor Wimpey (TW.) have gone nowhere for the last few weeks while Barratt Redrow (BTRW) shares are hitting three-month lows.

Uncertainty ahead of the autumn budget and over the pace of interest rate cuts may be putting people off buying the housebuilders, but the market is currently the strongest it’s been since before the ‘mini-Budget’ two years ago.

Prices in September increased at their fastest rate since late 2022 with Halifax seeing a 4.7% annual rise in the cost of an average property to just over £293,000 and Nationwide citing a 3.2% annual rise to around £266,000.

‘Market conditions have steadily improved over the summer and into early autumn,’ said Halifax’s head of mortgages Amanda Bryden.

‘Mortgage affordability has been easing thanks to strong wage growth and falling interest rates. This has boosted confidence among potential buyers, with the number of mortgages agreed up over 40% in the last year and now at their highest level since July 2022.’

Nationwide’s chief economist Robert Gardner added: ‘Income growth has continued to outstrip house price growth in recent months while borrowing costs have edged lower amid expectations that the Bank of England will continue to lower interest rates in the coming quarters.

‘These trends have helped to improve affordability for prospective buyers and underpinned a modest increase in activity and house prices, though both remain subdued by historic standards.’

If investors in housebuilders generally were unenthused, shareholders in Vistry Group (VTY) were probably feeling as if they had gone 10 rounds with Mike Tyson after the stock dropped 30% out of the blue this week on a shock cut to earnings estimates.

The firm blamed a 10% understatement of total life build costs on just nine developments out of its portfolio of 300 sites for a £115 million hit to pre-tax profit, the bulk of which, £80 million, is set to come off this year’s income.

Vistry said an investigation was ongoing into how the miscalculation happened and insisted it would still deliver over 18,000 new completions this year compared with 16,000 last year, as well as maintaining its share buyback and targeting a net cash position at the end of December.

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