Whisper it, but Walmart (WMT:NYSE) may be about to have its global retail crown swiped off its head by online giant Amazon (AMZN:NASDAQ). Walmart has been the top shopping dog since blowing past Sears more than 30 years ago, but its status as worldwide number one (in revenue terms) could be tested when the $827 billion retailer posts fourth quarter 2024 results on 20 February.

Amazon confirmed a 10% jump in overall revenue for its own Q4 (6 February), hitting $187.8 billion, versus $170 billion in the same period last year. Walmart is projected to post rough 4% sales growth in Q4 (to 31 January) at $178.8 billion, according to consensus forecasts, although the comparison is a little disingenuous – about a third of Amazon’s top-line comes from non-retail operations, including areas like online advertising and its cloud computing arm AWS.

Either way you look at it, Walmart remains a supreme business, with excellent returns on capital and equity of 18% and 23.5% respectively. Even margins are decent given the ultra-competitive market it operates in, with operating margins running at around the 4.3% mark, about the same as the UK’s Tesco (TSCO), and far better than US rivals like Costco Wholesale (COST:NASDAQ) or Kroger (KR:NYSE), at 3.7% and 2.8% respectively ─ Target (TGT:NYSE) has 5.5% margins.

This is reflected in a pretty chunky rating, the shares trading on 37 times consensus forecast earnings for the 12 months to 31 January 2026. US consumer spending has been extremely resilient but recent signs of weakening confidence among American households could be headwind for Walmart. 

US UPDATES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS

QUARTERLY RESULTS

14 Feb: Coco-Cola European, Moderna

18 Feb: Arista Networks, Cadence Design, Medtronic, Occidental

19 Feb: Analog Devices, Copart, Garmin

20 Feb: Booking, Hasbro, MercadoLibre, Walmart

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