What the experts are saying about the tariff-driven selling

Mark Hawtin, head of Liontrust global equities team: ‘We can understand why markets have reacted as they have because, if fully enacted, the tariffs have far-reaching impacts and many unintended consequences. Trump is single-handedly meting out huge cost problems on the iconic brands created in the US.’
Ben Conway, chief investment officer and head of fund management at Hawksmoor Investment Management: ‘Tariffs cause prices to increase, and many fear this may increase inflation (and more specifically, inflationary expectations). At the same time, many fear they will dampen economic activity across the globe, but the fears regarding the US economy are particularly acute given its current weak economic position (being close to a recession).’
Ben Leyland and Rob Lancastle of the JOHCM Global Opportunities fund said: ‘Whether all the tariffs will be implemented – most of those announced year to date have not been – is not clear, but they are likely to lead to a fragmenting geopolitical environment in which regional self-sufficiency needs to be re-established and rebuilt, likely supported by fiscal stimulus. Our portfolios have been constructed with this in mind since 2022 and we see little reason to change this view currently.’
Charles Jillings, fund manager at Utilico Emerging Markets: ‘Vietnam notably stands out from the rest with a very high 46% tariff applied as Vietnam has a significant imbalance in US export exposure, exporting $97 billion worth of goods in 2023 to the US without any meaningful counterbalance on the import side of the equation.’
Anita Wright chartered financial planner at Bolton James said: ‘All it took was one man and a round of tariffs to shake the system. Had it not been tariffs, something else would have eventually triggered the collapse. But the reckoning is now upon us. The once-favoured mantra of buy the dip has given way to don’t try to catch a falling knife.’
Alex Tedder, chief investment officer, equities at Schroders: ‘Perhaps most surprising has been the action taken against many of the south east Asian countries where many US and international sportswear and apparel companies had re-routed supply chains following Trump 1.0’s tariff action against China.’
Berenberg analysts said: ‘If Donald Trump’s trade war and the equity market sell-off trigger a global recession, the UK would of course struggle. However, the UK is relatively well placed to weather the tariff shock. The additional 10% rate it faces is at the bottom end of the range imposed by the US. Healthy consumer finances, lower energy prices and a fall in interest-rate expectations will also help.’
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