Will better weather boost indebted JD Wetherspoon?

Investors will be hoping recent better weather and a series of major sporting events have boosted takings at pubs group JD Wetherspoon (JDW), now readying its third quarter update for release on 7 May. In common with the rest of the hospitality sector, JD Wetherspoon trades against a tough backdrop of weak consumer confidence and higher costs following hikes in National Insurance and the National Living Wage. As such, confirmation of another quarter of like-for-like sales growth would be welcomed by investors, who’ll also pore over chairman Tim Martin’s customary utterances on the issues impacting the pubs industry, including a tax system he argues ‘inexplicably benefits supermarkets’.
Despite a tough market backdrop, the FTSE 250 pubs play delivered robust 4.8% like-for-like sales growth for the half ended 26 January 2025. Unfortunately, pre-tax profits fell 8.6% to £32.9 million as the estate shrunk and higher labour costs ate into Wetherspoon’s already-skinny operating margins, which fell from 6.8% to 6.3%. Encouragingly, management said the second half had started well with like-for-likes up 5% in the 7 weeks to 16 March, and hotter weather should boost sales at the value-oriented pubs chain.
At the interim stage, management continued to expect ‘a reasonable outcome for the financial year, subject to its future sales performance’, and in a show of confidence, investors were also treated to a 4p half-time dividend.
Indebted JD Wetherspoon faces an additional £1,500 in costs per pub, per week following increases in national insurance and labour rates and as such, has not ruled out further price rises this year. As the pugnacious Martin has warned: ‘The combination of much higher VAT rates for pubs than supermarkets, combined with increased labour costs will weigh heavily on the pub industry.’
UK UPDATES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
FULL-YEAR RESULTS
7 May: Card Factory, 1Spatial
FIRST-HALF RESULTS
7 May: Smiths News
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
2 May: Shell, Standard Chartered
6 May: International Workplace Group
7 May: Georgia Capital, JD Wetherspoon
8 May: Derwent London, Harbour Energy, IMI, InterContinental Hotels Group, Mondi
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