Our portfolio picks for 2025 haven’t fared too well in the first half of the year, returning 0.6% compared to a gain of 6.1% from the FTSE All-Share index as of 9 June.

It wasn’t all bad news, however, as stocks like defence technology group Cohort (CHRT:AIM), premium mixer-maker Fevertree Drinks (FEVR:AIM), airline and package holiday provider Jet2 (JET2:AIM) and infrastructure and construction services outfit Kier (KIE) all made double-digit gains.

BIG WINNERS

Defence technology firm Cohort is ‘top of the pops’ so far this year gaining more than 50% due to an increase in security spending by governments around the world, a trend which show little sign of slowing.

For the year to the end of April, Cohort posted strong revenue and earnings growth alongside a record new order book which already covers 80% of current-year top-line expectations, and with the UK strategic defence review set to increase government spending as a proportion of GDP the firm could see further benefits.

Shore Capital analysts Robin Speakman and Jamie Murray argue the long-term opportunity for the company ‘remains attractive, underpinned by rising western defence budgets and Cohort’s growing relevance within NATO supply chains’. 

The next-best performer is premium mixer brand Fevertree Drinks, whose shares are up 26.1% this year thanks to strong growth in the US helped by its partnership with Molson Coors (TAP:NYSE) which has contributed to brand performance well ahead of its competitors.

The company is in expansive mood and has also started local production in Australia – a key strategic milestone – while at the same time returning cash to investors via a share buyback programme.

Panmure Liberum analysts Anubhav Malhotra and Wayne Brown comment: ‘We continue to believe the US partnership supercharges Fevertree’s ability to capture the large US opportunity and ensures the long-term potential of the business is much more realistically achievable.

‘We estimate the group could return up to £135 million of excess cash over the next five years, over and above circa £145 million of expected dividends.’

Infrastructure and construction services outfit Kier has made a gain of 15.7% and the shares reached a five-year high (3 June) on a confident outlook and a margin target upgrade.

For the four months to 30 April, the company reported a further uptick in its already-hefty order book to £11 billion and raised its operating margin target from to a range of 4% to 4.5% from 3.5%-plus previously.

‘Bidding discipline and risk management embedded across the business has driven a higher quality order book, which combined with the recapitalisation of our property business has led us to increase our operating profit margin target to 4% to 4.5% in three to five years,’ said the Manchester-based firm. 

Meanwhile, shares in airline and package holiday provider Jet2 have gained 19.5% so far this year, lifted by confirmation of its full-year 2025 financial targets and a £250 million share buyback reflecting its strong balance sheet.

The company’s ‘customer-first’ approach seems to be resonating strongly with consumers, and at the end of April it revealed it had launched new bases at Bournemouth and London Luton airports in response to ‘encouraging’ demand. 

IN THE DOLDRUMS

Unfortunately, only four out of our 10 picks are in positive territory, but just as they have little in common with each other, nor is there is anything to unite the six stocks which are down at the half-year stage.

Least-bad of the six is analytics firm GlobalData (DATA), which reported in April it had received two unsolicited approaches from private equity firms consisting of cash and unlisted shares.

At the beginning of May, the group suspended its share buyback, before one of the potential acquirers, US firm KKR (KKR:NYSE), announced it was pulling out of the bidding. 

GlobalData confirmed at the end of May it was still in discussions with the remaining buyer, related to ICG Europe Fund IX, but that wasn’t enough to stop the shares slipping to a loss of 5.1% on the year.

Despite posting an increase in first-half revenue and profit ‘driven by strong uptake of value-added services and stabilisation in gross merchandise value,’ online marketplace provider Auction Technology (ATG) has seen its shares lag the market this year.

Analysts at Berenberg put the weak share price, which has fallen 22% in the past month, down to ‘investor concerns over a slowdown in its end-markets and the size of the implied second half growth rate in consensus forecasts’.

Berenberg believes investors are questioning the company’s medium-term projections given that since full year 2022 organic growth has been no better than mid-single digit.

Another of our tips, which recently reported strong double-digit growth in revenue  and EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortisation), but has also seen its shares underperform so far this year, is specialist advisory and restructuring firm FRP Advisory (FRP:AIM).

Despite a growing need for its services, the firm noted delays in decision making and an adverse impact on business confidence in the three months to the end of April due to the ‘marked increase in macroeconomic volatility, driven predominantly by US announcements regarding global trade tariffs’.

Chief executive Geoff Rowley said FRP remained ‘well placed to continue to serve its clients across the entire economic cycle. The medium-term outlook for our markets remains positive and we have sufficient resource flexibility to respond to an increase in demand for our services.’

Somewhat surprisingly, US tech darling Alphabet (GOOG:NASDAQ) makes an appearance towards the bottom of our picks with a loss of 9.2% so far this year.

The Google-owner’s first-quarter results were better than feared, showing resilience in its core advertising business despite a tough macroeconomic backdrop.

Search revenue rose 10%, ahead of expectations, driven by strong engagement and artificial intelligence integration across key sectors like insurance, health and retail.

Chief executive Sundar Pichai commented: ‘Search saw continued strong growth, boosted by the engagement we’re seeing with features like AI Overviews, which now has 1.5 billion users per month.

‘Driven by YouTube and Google One, we surpassed 270 million paid subscriptions, and Cloud grew rapidly with significant demand for our solutions.’

However, the company has been a casualty of the White House’s antitrust policy, with its search, advertising and app store all declared unfair monopolies and the Department of Justice arguing for a break-up.

There are also concerns Open A’s ChatGPT could undermine Google’s search business, which generates close to $200 billion in annual revenue.

IN THE DOGHOUSE

Languishing near the bottom of the table is spirits maker Diageo (DGE), whose shares are down 23.5% due to concerns over the robustness of US demand and the potential impact of tariffs on some of its signature products.

The company owns several iconic brands such as Johnnie Walker whisky, Smirnoff vodka, Captain Morgan rum and Guinness stout, not to mention the Casmaigos and Don Leon tequila brands, and derives half its profits from the US.

The group admitted in May that tariffs could hit profit by $150 million this year, although fund manager Nick Train, who manages the Finsbury Growth & Income (FGT) investment trust, which includes Diageo among its holdings, believes there may be ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ for investors.

Train believes Diageo could gain market share as a result of the tariff turmoil, and if the White House succeeds in cutting taxes for US citizens then ‘Diageo’s exposure to US consumer would be seen as a strength, not, as currently, a weakness’.

Bringing up the absolute rear is tea and coffee manufacturer Treatt (TET), with shares down nearly 40% after the firm cut its full-year profit forecast citing weaker US consumer confidence and high raw material costs.

Treatt now expects revenue for the year to be below 2024, and analysts have been busy taking the axe to earnings per share forecasts.

‘The situation around US trade tariffs remains fluid, and we are following developments closely to better understand the extent to which Treatt will be affected, both directly and indirectly,’ the company said in May.

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