Government backing for affordable housing should kindle demand

Few people will have been happier to see the back of 2024 than Greg Fitzgerald, chief executive of affordable house builder Vistry Group (VTY).

After three profit warnings, the final one on Christmas Eve no less, and a set of results which missed expectations by a country mile, leading to the final dividend being scrapped, this year represents a reset with the firm focused on reducing its working capital and its net debt.

In addition, a government promise in March this year to inject £2 billion of affordable home grants, followed by a commitment in June’s spending review to  channel £39 billion into social and affordable housing over the next decade should drive momentum in the company’s core market.

Having said that, Vistry’s May trading update, issued the day of its AGM (annual general meeting), revealed its forward order book was lower than at the same point in 2024 (£4.6 billion versus £4.9 billion), although it did say private reservations were picking up.

The firm guided for open market volumes, meaning those to private buyers, to match 2024’s level, while noting strengthening demand in the private rented sector and a growing amount of investment money being raised in the sector.

However, it also admitted it was seeing ‘some upward pressure’ on both building material and labour prices, which it said it was having some success mitigating through ‘proactive engagement’ with its sub-contractors and suppliers.

Therefore, all eyes will be on the firm’s first half trading update next Thursday 10 July and whether it tweaks its outlook up or down.

Hopefully, rather like Bellway (BWY)last month, Vistry will have enjoyed a further uptick in demand since May, meaning it can lift its outlook and afford to reinstate the dividend, although we aren’t holding our breath just yet. 

 

UK UPDATES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS

FULL-YEAR RESULTS

8 July: Solid State, DSW Capital, Optima Health, Celebrus Technologies

9 July: Zigup, System1 Group, Jet2, Renold

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

10 July: Severn Trent, Vistry

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