Conflicting messages from smaller players have painted an unclear picture

It has been a mixed reporting season for housebuilders so far this summer, with Bellway (BWY) reporting better-than-expected completions and pricing while MJ Gleeson (GLE) talked of a housing market ‘lacking confidence’ and with no signs of a short-term catalyst for a substantial improvement.

Just as Shares is published (10 July), Vistry (VTY) is due to update the market, and the market will be looking closely at the firm’s first-half sales rate and order book, as well as progress on reducing its inventory of unsold properties.

However, investors will likely take their steer from Barratt Redrow (BTRW), the sector’s largest player, when it reports on 15 July.

The group’s first-quarter update in mid-April suggested demand for its homes was resilient, with pricing beginning to tick up.

Additionally, the benefits of the merger were  just starting to shine through with the company sounding confident its increased scale would keep a lid of cost inflation coming through from suppliers and subcontractors.

UK interest rates are still expected to fall by another 50 basis points or half a percent by the end of the year, despite the recent wobble in the bond market, and estate agents report buyers returning after a short hiatus following the end of the stamp duty holiday.

Therefore new-build demand should improve in the second half, and investors will be hoping chief executive David Thomas strikes a confident tone for the rest of the year.

It may be early days to expect an increase in guidance, but failing that there may be scope for further shareholder returns in the form of more buybacks as the group’s balance sheet is in good order. 


 

UK UPDATES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS

FULL-YEAR RESULTS

15 July: Brickability, Sosander

16 July: Cohort

 

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

15 July: Robert Walters, Experian

16 July: Hunting, Barratt Redrow, SSE

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