On his return to the White House in January, Donald Trump promised lower taxes, more jobs, a clampdown on immigration and a new trade policy which would see the US become less reliant on overseas-supplied goods.

Six months on, the US president has had quite an impact on business, consumers and financial markets, some of which has been positive and some negative.

It has been a whirlwind period and people are still trying to fathom the longer-term implications of his policies.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act has been signed into law and made permanent Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, paving the way for extra spending in defence and immigration while cutting funding for health and accelerating the phasing-out of clean energy tax credits.

WHERE NEXT FOR TARIFFS?

Investor concerns are shifting from the structure of future tariff deals to how trade levies are starting to hurt corporate earnings.

For a while, it looked as though investors were becoming more relaxed about tariffs, because Trump has developed a reputation for having a bark worse than his bite, threatening to do something and not following through.

Having extended the 90-day negotiation period for tariffs from 9 July to 1 August, the market now expects more of the same, so 1 August could become 1 September and then 1 October.

Still, a multitude of foreign trade partners are in talks with the Trump administration, hoping to get a framework agreement by 1 August.

The message from the White House is Trump is not in a rush to secure deals before the deadline, instead preferring to get each agreement right.

Yet the more Trump extends the deadline, the weaker his bargaining power to get a deal weighted in the US’s favour as trade partners could push for more time to negotiate.

Any deal which is higher than the 10% baseline tariff and less than the original Liberation Day tariff could be deemed a win by the foreign trade partner, whereas the US could be in a better position regardless of the final rate, so Trump would still have some way of claiming victory.

While the lacklustre response to recent tariff news might imply investors are cool as a cucumber towards trade talks, there has been a wake-up call in recent days.

The second-quarter earnings season has been soured by companies quantifying the impact of tariffs on their profit and loss account.

For example, car maker General Motors (GM:NYSE) revealed US tariffs have cost it $1 billion while sector peer Stellantis (STLAP:EPA) has taken a €300 million hit as tariffs have impacted trade.

Also, technology provider Nokia (NOKIA:HEL) said tariffs could impact its full-year operating profit by up to €80 million.

The more companies who say Trump’s trade policies have or could hurt earnings, the more frustrated investors will be.

The impact of tariffs has already fed through to the monthly inflation print, meaning consumers and businesses are once again having to stomach greater costs.

That, in turn, has stoked concerns the Federal Reserve will be in even less of a rush to lower US interest rates – another negative for investors.

The next big test for markets will be countries who decide to retaliate rather than cave in to Trump’s demands.

That has the potential to cause turbulence in equity and bond markets as Trump doesn’t like to be the loser in a fight.

His natural reaction would be to jack up US tariffs further than before, which would only increase geopolitical tensions and bother investors.

WHAT IS THE BOND MARKET SAYING?

A bond tantrum immediately after Liberation Day forced Trump to take his foot off the pedal and allow time for trade negotiations, even though he may not admit it.

US treasury yields saw large swings in April and caused palpitations across financial markets. For a brief moment, there was panic, and investors certainly don’t want that to happen again.

There are two big risks to treasury yields. One is Trump interfering with the Federal Reserve and finding a way to sack Jerome Powell as chair, someone he dislikes because they don’t agree on interest rate policy.

The other risk is investors wanting a much higher reward for holding treasury bonds if the US debt continues to balloon at a rapid clip.

Trump’s new tax bill will add $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, according to analysis from the Congressional Budget Office.

Higher bond yields would push up the cost of servicing the debt interest bill, putting even more pressure on the administration.

WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH SHARES?

Two of the three main US stock market indices are higher than at Trump’s inauguration (the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite), but only by a small amount and the interim period has been volatile, while the Dow Jones index has made little progress.

In other words, investors hoping Trump’s second term would lead to stock market riches are still waiting for big rewards.

Not everyone is sticking around. Investors took £622 million out of North American equity funds in May, the first outflows in six months, according to the Investment Association.

Some investors believe the US is now a much higher-risk investment prospect under Trump and they’ve taken money off the table and reallocated to other parts of the world including Europe.

This is a dramatic shift in thinking given the US has for years been a top place to make money.

Dollar weakness will have also spurred UK investors to look closer to home for opportunities as a weak dollar versus the pound makes US assets less attractive.

For example, since Trump’s inauguration an S&P tracker fund priced in dollars would have generated a 5.7% positive return including dividends but excluding fees, whereas a sterling-denominated version would have lost 4.5%.

There are clear themes among the winners and losers on the US stock market over the past six months. The best performers in the S&P 500 include Palantir Technologies (PLTR:NASDAQ), which is helping the Trump administration to collect data on all Americans, while Super Micro Computer (SMCI:NASDAQ) and Seagate Technology (STX:NASDAQ) have soared thanks to AI-related exposure.

The biggest losers are all down on Trump-related factors. Stocks such as Centene (CNC:NYSE), United Health (UNH:NYSE) and Molina Healthcare (MOH:NYSE) are set to lose out from cuts to healthcare as a result of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Nearly $1 trillion is set to be cut from Medicaid over the next decade, meaning fewer people will have healthcare coverage.

On the other hand, shares in sportswear groups such as Deckers Outdoor (DECK:NYSE) and Lululemon Athletica (LULU:NASDAQ) have crashed as they source products from parts of Asia which will be subject to the new tariff regime.

The 2025 consensus earnings forecast for the S&P 500 has fallen by 2% since Trump began his second term as president. However, forecasts have gone up by 1.2% for 2026’s earnings, which suggests that analysts are becoming more comfortable with the potential new landscape and how companies might deal with tariff-related issues.

WHAT ABOUT CRYPTO AND GOLD?

While US shares have gone into the slow lane, albeit still making new highs, cryptocurrencies have shown greater price action.

Bitcoin is up by 13% since Trump returned to the White House as bullish investors take the view cryptocurrencies will become more relevant in the global financial system.

Trump has talked about making America the crypto capital of the world, and now the market is hoping those words become reality.

US lawmakers recently discussed various acts which could pave the way for a regulatory framework. Further debates will no doubt follow but corporate and investor interest in all things crypto is growing.

More impressive is the price action of gold and other precious metals. Gold is up 26% since Trump’s inauguration for multiple reasons, the obvious one being investors are looking to add protection to their portfolios. Gold has historically been a safe haven during uncertain times.

There are other reasons to explain the metal’s galloping performance this year. Consider the fiscal incontinence of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, how DOGE only achieved tiny savings, and how the federal debt continues to pile up.

Rising federal debt undermines investor confidence in the long-term value of the US dollar. Note the US dollar index – which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies – has fallen by 11% since 20 January.

The gold price has also risen due to Trump’s pressure on Powell and the Fed for lower interest rates, and central banks buying gold to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar.

Finally, Trump’s rule by executive order worries a lot of people and gold is their safety blanket.

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