Sunshine boost for UK retail sales in June but confidence ‘fragile’

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UK retail sales increased by almost 5% in June, although this masked a large drop in volumes after accounting for inflation, numbers on Tuesday showed.

The British Retail Consortium on Tuesday said total retail sales increased by 4.9% in the five weeks from May 28 to July 1, having decreased 1.0% during the same period in 2022. This was above the three-month average growth of 4.6% and the 12-month average growth of 4.0%.

‘The sun was shining on retailers in June, with the warm weather bringing consumers back out to the high street,’ said KPMG UK Head of Retail Paul Martin. ‘Sales of suntan lotion, food and clothing were all given a boost as consumers made the most of the record June temperatures.’

Meanwhile, like-for-like retail sales increased by 4.2%, compared with a 1.3% decrease the year before. This was however below the three-month average of 4.3% and above the 12-month average of 3.6%.

The BRC also said that over the three months to June, total food sales increased 9.8% and 10% on a like-for-like basis.

‘Consumer confidence remains fragile,’ said BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson. ‘But, with headline food inflation easing for two months in a row as prices of essentials start to fall thanks to stiff competition and consumers continuing to shift shopping patterns to mitigate as much inflation as they can, confidence could improve.’

Non-food sales were less buoyant, rising 0.3% on a total basis and falling by 0.5% like-for-like over the same three months, below the 0.8% 12-month total average growth. In-store non-food sales increased 2.0% on a total basis and 0.6% like-for-like, below the 3.7% 12-month growth average.

Meanwhile, online sales decreased by 1.0% in June, shallower than the 9.1% drop the previous year and the 3.2% 12-month average decline.

‘As we move into the last half of the year, retailers will be hoping that anticipated falls in inflation start to deliver stronger sales growth in order to improve the overall health of the sector,’ commented KPMG’s Martin.

He added: ‘Consumers have so far remained resilient, but the triple threats of further interest rate hikes, resolute double digit food inflation and an economy recovering at slower rate than predicted, could hamper a return to much needed profitable growth across the retail sector.’

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