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The UK economy is expected to have increased by 0.4% in 2023, with that pace is expected to be replicated in 2024, according to an average of City forecasts compiled by the UK government and issued on Wednesday.
UK gross domestic product is expected to have grown by 0.4% in 2023, according to an average of independent forecasts collated by the Treasury.
The average of new forecasts received - 18 between January 1 and 12 - also calls for 0.4% growth in GDP. It is a downward revision from the expectation in December of 0.5% growth in 2023.
The consumer price inflation rate for 2023 is expected at 4.2%, according to an average of all independent forecasts. This is slightly lower compared to the forecast of 4.4% in December.
The Office for National Statistics separately on Wednesday said the UK consumer price index rose by 4.0% annually in December, the pace of inflation notching up from a 3.9% increase in November.
The unemployment rate at the end of the year is forecast to be at 4.3% based on independent averages, in line with December’s estimates. On Tuesday, the ONS had reported the jobless rate for the three months from September to November at 4.2%, unchanged from the August to October period.
In 2024, UK GDP is also expected to grow by 0.4%, in line with December’s estimates.
The inflation rate for 2024 is anticipated at 2.4%, down from December’s estimate for 2024 of 2.6% and 1.8 percentage points lower than the 4.2% expected for 2023.
The unemployment rate for the final quarter of 2024 is expected at 4.6%, down from December’s estimate of 4.7% but higher than the 4.3% expected for 2023.
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