Theresa May’s deal is still the most likely Brexit outcome, even if it takes a second vote to pass, according to analysis by investment bank Berenberg.

The Brexit question remains one of the UK’s most contentious political decisions in a generation, and the outcome is still very much up for grabs. The Prime Minister’s preferred option is expected to be voted down when MPs decide on the issue in parliament on 11 December.

But Berenberg’s strategists believe that any initial protest veto could be overturned in a second vote as frustrations subside in a desperate attempt to avoid a hard Brexit extreme option.

The UK Brexit Bill rules state that any second parliamentary vote would need to happen within three weeks of the first one, making 18 December – two days before parliament’s Christmas shut down on 20 December – a likely date.

While Berenberg admits that all options remain on the table right now, including hard Brexit and no Brexit at all, the investment bank remains convinced that some sort of soft Brexit is highly likely.

It believes a middle way would be in the best interests of the UK economy, saying that a ‘softer Brexit would likely trigger a temporary acceleration in UK real GDP growth and limit the Brexit damage to long-term growth potential’. 

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