Several occasions in 2019 have been flagged as crunch time for Brexit and then failed to live up to expectations but the next seven days should give the markets a clearer picture on the likely destiny of the process.

It is hard to see how Prime Minister Theresa May can further delay a meaningful vote on her Brexit deal, even if it looks increasingly dubious that she will achieve the tangible changes to the backstop demanded by the Brexiteers in her party before MPs have their say on 12 March.

Sterling volatility is likely to build ahead of the vote and domestic-facing stocks such as insurers, banks and housebuilders are also likely to be affected.

Most observers expect May to suffer a further defeat after her agreement was voted down by a resounding majority of 230 in January.

There is a plan that might win support from some MPs (and appears to have tentative Labour backing) which would back her deal on the condition it was put to a fresh referendum with remain as the other option, but May seems unlikely to make this concession.

If May’s deal is voted down, MPs will come back the next day (13 Mar) to vote on whether to reject a no-deal Brexit. If they do then there will be a vote on 14 March to delay Brexit until June by extending Article 50. The UK will only be able to request an extension; it will need the unanimous support of all EU members to be accepted.

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