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What completion of game-changing YouGov GfK deal means for the business

The completion of YouGov’s (YOU:AIM) €315 million purchase of the consumer panel services of GfK (9 January) is a potential gamechanger for the business.
Analysts at Berenberg estimate the deal - which was first announced in July 2023 - will contribute £60 million of revenue and £12 million of adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) in the remainder of the current financial year running to 31 July 2024. In the 2025 financial year it expects a £121 million contribution to the top line and £26 million to EBIT. To place this in context the company reported £258 million of revenue in the 12 months to 31 July 2023.
The company had said it would update the growth targets from its third strategic growth plan in the wake of completing on this deal, financed through a £51 million fundraise and €280 million loan facility, and this could happen alongside its first-half results on 19 March.
Berenberg analyst Ciarán Donnelly says: ‘YouGov is operating in a large fragmented market, it has invested in its platform and product set, and we think it one of the best growth stories in the UK-listed universe.’
Whether it will remain a part of this universe indefinitely is open to question. On 8 January the company unveiled the acquisition of US based survey data management solution firm KnowledgeHound for an undisclosed sum to further orientate the business across the Atlantic.
In August 2023, YouGov group chair and co-founder Stephan Shakespeare hinted at a possible primary or secondary listing in the US in a story in the Financial Times.
Shakespeare has since stepped down as chair to be replaced by former Meta Platforms (META:NASDAQ) vice-president Steve Hatch and has become non-executive chair at the company.
Separately in the media space, advertising giant WPP (WPP) might be due a £400 million windfall from the sale of Kantar Media, a division of market research outfit Kantar.
Kantar Media manages the UK’s television audience measurement system (as well as in 62 other countries including France, Spain, Norway, and Latin America) BARB. Its parent Kantar is 40% owned by WPP with the remainder held by private equity firm Bain Capital.
Bain bought its stake in Kantar in 2019 in a deal which valued the research and analytics group as a whole at approximately £3.2 billion.
Bain Capital will be putting Kantar Media up for sale in the coming months according to Sky News, with a price tag of £1 billion.
WPP shares have gained 2% since the announcement, however over the past year they are down 14% at 760p. The company reported disappointing third quarter results in October and lowered its full year 2023 guidance.
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