Can AI (artificial intelligence) chip leader Nvidia (NVDA:NASDAQ) keep putting forecasts to the sword? The Santa Clara-based design business has blown past expectations in each of the past four quarters and skipping a soggy third quarter for earnings in 2022, it’s a forecast-thumping record that stretches back to 2019.

Last year saw half a dozen upgrades to estimates, a run that triggered a 240%-odd stock rally, but investor excitement remains undiminished – the share price has jumped 50% already in 2024 for a market cap that is now closing fast on $2 trillion.

This leaves fourth quarter 2024 (to 31 Jan) consensus estimates calling for earnings of $4.54 per share on $20.3 billion of revenue. This time a year ago the company reported $0.88 on $6.05 billion of revenue.

Yet the powerful AI growth engine is increasingly believed to be a structural technology shift not seen since the internet was invented. Analysts see earnings and sales ballooning 68% and 56% respectively in the new fiscal year to January 2025 and recent speculation of talks between Nvidia top brass and many of its biggest clients, Apple (AAPL:NASDAQ) and Amazon (AMZN:NASDAQ) among them, about bespoke AI chips looks likely to fuel the buying frenzy for now. 

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