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Analysts have revised up their earnings forecasts in 2024

Opioid-use disorder treatment specialist Indivior (INDV) shot out the blocks in the early part of 2024 driven by stronger than expected full-year profit, (22 February) a strong outlook and excitement over its proposed US Nasdaq listing.

Since then, the shares have lost nearly 30% of their value compared with a 6% gain in the mid-cap FTSE 250 index, making them one of the worst performers over that timeframe.

There does not appear to be any loss of momentum within the business which could have impacted investor sentiment. Management reiterated full year guidance at an analyst meeting as recently as 23 May in New York.

Revenue is anticipated to increase 18% at the midpoint of the guided range to $1.28 billion while adjusted operating profit is expected to be in the range of $330 million to $380 million.

The most likely explanation for the loss of share price momentum is the move of Indivior’s primary listing to the US. Passively managed funds tend to sell ahead of shares exiting certain indices they track.

Indivior first listed shares on Nasdaq in 2023 and the decision to move its primary listing across the pond is partially predicated on the shares achieving a high valuation. The company estimates around half of its shares are already owned by US investors. 

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