Tesco’s (TSCO) shares have ticked up 35% over the past year, so Britain’s biggest grocer by some stretch will need to deliver good news with first half results (3 October) to sustain its upwards stock price momentum.

Steered by CEO Ken Murphy, Tesco is expected to update investors on another period of robust trading with further share gains in an ultra-competitive UK & Ireland market, where arch-rival J Sainsbury (SBRY) appears rejuvenated and Tesco’s keen prices are keeping German discounters Aldi and Lidl at bay ─ its Aldi Price Match, Everyday Low Value and Clubcard Prices mechanics are a powerful combination.

‘We continue to be the cheapest full-line grocer and are the most competitive we’ve ever been, with our value, product quality and service driving better brand perception and customer satisfaction,’ insisted Murphy at the first quarter results in June. Shore Capital forecasts 4.3% UK like-for-like sales growth for the first half, which would be a respectable outcome given easing inflation and Tesco’s size and market leadership, and sees adjusted pre-tax profit coming in at roughly £1.3 billion.

Investors will be hoping Tesco benefited from the summer of sport, with its Finest Dine In summer range flying off the shelves, although poor weather won’t have helped wholesaler Booker to shift impulse and outdoor eating lines.

Shore Capital sees scope to upgrade its full year 2025 estimates at the results, while cautioning that the Christmas period, as ever, ‘remains one that requires delivery and should not just be given as read’.

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