Next week sees the publication of fourth-quarter and full-year results from Wall Street’s finest, starting with Citigroup (C:NYSE) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM:NYSE) on 15 January followed a day later by Bank of America (BAC:NYSE), Goldman Sachs (GS:NYSE) and Morgan Stanley (MS:NYSE).

By all accounts these should be blockbuster figures as trading volumes have been way above normal levels for the fourth quarter across all asset types, including cryptocurrencies, driven by an increasing contribution from retail investors.

‘Momentum across retail trading is building off a strong equity market in 2024, solid account growth and new product offerings,’ says Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon.

‘With regulatory barriers potentially easing and demand from retail investors for broader markets and asset classes on the rise, we also see a few structural tailwinds that will likely gain momentum in 2025, specifically the resurgence in crypto, new product development in event contracts and sports betting and growth in growth in overnight trading.’

At the same time, corporate deal activity is ‘poised to accelerate’ says Fannon thanks to healthy backlogs at investment banks and maturing private equity portfolios which should mean a sharp improvement in revenue compared to the last couple of years.

The market has high hopes for bank earnings in general in 2025, with less regulation and red tape and oversight potentially being handled by a single agency bringing together the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corp), the OCC (Office of the Currency Comptroller) and the Federal Reserve to cut costs.

For JPMorgan, analysts have pencilled in fourth-quarter EPS (earnings per share) of $3.86 against $3.97 in the year-ago period and full-year EPS of $17.31 against $16.80 the prior year, but given the firm’s ability to beat forecasts we suspect the actual outcome could be significantly stronger. 

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