US companies on course for highest quarterly earnings growth since 2021

Although much of the market’s focus last week was on president Donald Trump on the one hand, and Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek, on the other, there was also a slew of earnings reports which included a couple of Big Tech companies.
Facebook, Instagram and Whatsapp-owner Meta Platforms (META:NASDAQ) posted fourth-quarter revenue of $48.4 billion, up 21% on the previous year and well above analysts’ estimates of $47 billion thanks to growth in advertising receipts.
Earnings per share also crushed expectations with a rise of 50% to $8.02 compared with the consensus of $6.76, but the share price reaction was muted due to soft forward guidance.
Revenue for the first quarter is now seen up 12% at $39.5 billion, against a market forecast of $41.7 billion, while spending on AI (artificial intelligence) data centres is set to top $60 billion this year, up more than 50% on 2024.
According to thestreet.com, spending on AI projects by the big tech firms could reach $300 billion this year while estimates for overall spending on AI technology over the next three years has been pegged at around $2 trillion.
Like Meta, Microsoft (MSFT:NASDAQ), whose second-quarter results also beat the consensus with revenue of almost $70 billion and EPS of $3.23, saw its shares come under some pressure as analysts bemoaned a slower than anticipated growth outlook for its Azure cloud computing arm.
This was despite cloud revenue posting 21% year-on-year growth and surpassing $40 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time.
Analysts were also downbeat on the prospects for OpenAI, in which Microsoft owns a 49% stake, due to the entry of a low-cost, open-source competitor seemingly from out of nowhere.
In terms of the wider earnings picture, over a third of the companies in the S&P 500 index have now reported results for the final quarter of 2024, with 77% of companies beating forecasts, which is in line with the five-year average according to Factset.
However, the average ‘beat’ has only been 5% against the five-year average of 8.5% as positive results from technology and communication services companies – including Meta and Microsoft – have been partially offset by negative surprises from industrial companies, which have been more numerous and make a bigger contribution to the total.
As of the end of January, the blended earnings growth rate for the companies which have so far reported was 13.2% compared with 11.8% at the end of December.
If this rate is maintained it would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of growth for the index and the highest year-on-year growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2021.
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