The latest twist in the tariff saga is a conundrum for investors. Broadly speaking, anything which reduces barriers to global trade is likely a positive for markets.

Therefore, a ruling by the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit that most tariffs issued by the current US administration are illegal has some potentially positive long-term implications.

However, said ruling will not take effect until 14 October. This is to allow time for the White House to request an intervention from the Supreme Court which it seems almost certain to do.

Whatever the ultimate outcome, in the short term this just creates more uncertainty for businesses and investors who may well delay decisions as they wait to see exactly how the chips fall.

In its latest global outlook, investment bank Berenberg acknowledges the damage wrought by the trade war but does offer some reasons for optimism.

It notes: ‘Resilient labour markets and healthy balance sheets should partially offset the downward pressure on growth from elevated levels of uncertainty and tariffs.

‘So long as the US government sticks to the trade deals that it is making now and hands tariff revenues back to US consumers in the form of tax cuts, we think the US economy will slow significantly but not enter recession.’

Its forecasts imply GDP growth of 1.8% in 2025 moderating to 1.7% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Berenberg does also note the looming fiscal risk in the US.

It adds: ‘Yet larger government deficits can raise the government debt-to-GDP ratio and borrowing costs to extreme levels. Unsustainable policies cannot go on forever, and President Trump’s erratic policymaking has caused investors to lose some patience. The risk of a buyers’ strike in the bond market that forces the US into a major fiscal adjustment is growing.’

It is worth acknowledging that despite a somewhat chaotic backdrop, at a corporate level, the US continues to excel. In this vein Ian Conway looks at how the Magnificent Seven are faring in this week’s News section and there’s a detailed examination of Nvidia’s (NVDA) latest earnings report by our technology expert Steven Frazer.

By now you may have seen communications about the end of Shares in its current format. On a personal note, it has been a real pleasure to be part of the team for the last 18 years and to have edited the magazine over the last 18 months or so. Expect more insights, ideas and analysis over the next few weeks as we build up to our final issue on 25 September and in the meantime a big thank you to all of you for your feedback, input and support over the years.

‹ Previous2025-09-04Next ›