1. India – weathering higher tariffs: The United States increased tariffs on imports from India to 50% on August 27, 2025. The MSCI India Index has declined a modest 5% from its second quarter peak, weathering the initial tariff storm. These tariffs will likely impact an estimated 55%–65% of India’s exports to the United States, mostly in the apparel, auto parts and chemical sectors. High-value exports, including electronics and pharmaceuticals, are currently exempt. Our base case remains that these tariffs could eventually be lowered. While negotiations have been delayed, many countries have been able to lower tariffs through negotiation with the United States.

2. China equities at a four-year high: The MSCI China Index has risen to a four-year high on optimism that US President Trump will likely agree to a US-China trade deal. Resilient corporate earnings among Chinese companies with a domestic focus has also buoyed sentiment. There is also recognition that while challenges remain, the lows the market reached in 2024 discounted an overly pessimistic outlook given the fiscal and monetary resources available to Chinese policymakers.

3. Mixed markets in the Middle East: Strong investor confidence, economic reforms and robust corporate earnings lifted stocks in Egypt. However, oil price volatility weighed on Kuwait and Saudi Arabia’s energy-heavy equity markets, dampening investor sentiment in those countries. Mixed corporate earnings results across sectors also led to mixed results in the region.

‹ Previous2025-09-25Next ›