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Tough markets and an operationally-geared model suggest scope for further downgrades when the retailer next reports

Given recent share price-denting profit warnings, the pressure is on motoring-to-cycling products retailer Halfords (HFD) to halt the cycle of downgrades with upcoming results for the year ended 29 March 2024 on 27 June.

Shares doesn’t hold out much hope for upgrades any time soon as the backdrop is tough, with the bicycles market highly promotional and the retail motoring market choppy, notably for tyres. Investors might even brace themselves for more bad news since Halfords is both weather-sensitive and operationally-geared, which means a small reduction in revenue can have a major impact on earnings.

When it published its latest update (28 February), Halfords bemoaned a ‘further material weakening’ in three of its four core markets (cycling, retail motoring, consumer tyres) and slashed its full year 2024 underlying pre-tax profit guidance from £48 million to £53 million to between £35 million and £40 million.

Another downgrade-induced stock price plunge would heap massive pressure on the board to push through major changes or even seek a buyer for the business. Keep in mind, last year Halfords was the subject of whispers about a takeover approach from ZIGUP (ZIG), formerly Redde Northgate, which ultimately came to nothing. 

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