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Why Ryanair warning will spark a chill among investors in the airline space

Since we emerged from the pandemic, people’s spending have shifted from stuff to experiences with holidays particularly prized by those with the means to afford them.

Airlines and travel operators enjoyed bumper demand as people were desperate to get away for a week in the sun, having been denied the opportunity during lockdown, and had money to spend. This enabled the industry to pass increased costs on to travellers without denting their enthusiasm.

The latest update from Ryanair (RYAAY:NASDAQ) suggests this sunny scenario for the sector may be coming to an end. Travellers are proving reluctant to book too far in advance, holding out for better deals or just not able to commit thanks to strains on household finances.

This adds a layer of unpredictability which makes decisions around capacity difficult for companies. The recent disruption around industrial action and the global IT outages which caused chaos just as many Britons were looking to jet away on their holidays may also put off last-minute bookers.

Ryanair saw profits halve in its spring quarter despite a 10% increase in passenger numbers as its average fare dropped from €49.07 to €41.93 year-on-year. Crucially, it also expects second-quarter fares for the July to September period to be ‘materially’ (corporate speak for much) lower than they were last summer.

Investors will now be watching updates from the likes of EasyJet (EZJ), due to report on its third quarter as we went to press, Wizz Air (WIZZ) and British Airways-owner International Consolidated Airlines (IAG) to see if this trend is being seen across the board. IAG reports first-half results on 2 August and Wizz Air is scheduled to provide a first-quarter update on 1 August.

 


My colleague Ian Conway neatly summarised the potential objections to the new listing regime unveiled recently by the Financial Conduct Authority in last week’s column. Broadly, watering down standards to attract more companies to list in London doesn’t seem a sensible long-term strategy. While the rules are not set to go live until 29 July, their impact is already being felt.

Retail property investor Hammerson (HMSO) may have got unofficial approval in the form of a jump in the share price for a plan to sell its 40% stake in Value Retail, which owns luxury shopping destinations across Europe, for £1.5 billion to help pay down debt, invest in other parts of its portfolio and facilitate a return of capital.

However, the company explicitly references the new rules as it says shareholders won’t get a vote on a transaction which represents a big strategic shift. Jefferies analyst Mike Prew commented that while helpful from a balance sheet point of view, ‘selling the jewel in the crown leaves a portfolio of fractionally-owned shopping centres into a consumer retrenchment’.

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