The world’s largest home improvement retailer Home Depot (HD:NYSE) has topped earnings estimates in the last two quarters, so there is well-founded optimism that the US consumer bellwether can deliver another forecast ‘beat’ when it posts fourth quarter and full-year figures on 25 February.

Home Depot’s US comparable sales were down 4% in the fourth quarter of full year 2023, which means the company has a low bar to hurdle this time around when it comes to its Stateside performance.

Truist Securities recently raised its fourth quarter US comparable sales forecast for both Home Depot and smaller rival Lowe’s (LOW:NYSE), from a 2% decline to a 0.5% rise for the former, citing stronger-than-expected sales trends based on the firm’s proprietary card data.

Shares in Atlanta-headquartered Home Depot are up almost 15% over the past year, with investors increasingly bullish about the prospects for the US housing market under Donald Trump’s presidency, though the stock has lagged the S&P 500 Index over that timeframe. And with inflation raising its head again in the US, interest rate cuts across the pond could be deferred, putting a dampener on housing sales and home improvements in the world’s biggest economy.

Led by CEO Ted Decker, Home Depot’s third quarter performance exceeded management’s expectations, with comparable sales down 1.3% and comparable US sales falling 1.2%. ‘As weather normalised, we saw better engagement across seasonal goods and certain outdoor projects as well as incremental sales related to hurricane demand,’ explained Decker on 12 November. 

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