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Iron ore producer’s operational progress is being overshadowed

Ukrainian iron ore mining group Ferrexpo (FXPO) has seen its shares slump 40% in the last three months amid ongoing nervousness over the conflict with Russia as well as spats with the government and legal issues.

This has overshadowed operational progress with the company reporting on 23 April its best quarterly production figures since the invasion of Ukraine. In the first three months of 2024, the company achieved commercial output of two million tonnes. This represented a 203% increase quarter-on-quarter and 115% uplift year-on-year.

As Liberum analyst Ben Davis has previously observed, the impact on domestic power infrastructure from Russian attacks is a key risk to production forecasts.

The company has also set aside a $131 million provision to cover any negative outcome from two legal cases. These largely relate to its controlling shareholder Kostyantin Zhevago who, alongside two family members, controls 49.3% of the shares. The company is also in dispute with the Ukrainian government over royalty payments.

The company is likely to post its update on second-quarter output in early July before first-half numbers in early August. 

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