Much of the focus in the media and among investors has been on the poor performance of the FTSE 100 compared with global counterparts. A trend which only now seems to be unwinding.

What is often lost is how poorly mid- and, particularly, small-caps have performed of late. This is significant given these are typically more domestic-facing businesses.

Whichever party occupies 10 Downing Street after July’s election, and if the polls are right a change of government is coming, policies to revive the fortunes of this contingent certainly should be on the agenda.

Shore Capital’s analysis of the relationship between UK politics and markets over the last 40 years or so suggests that is the occupant of Number 11 who wields the most influence, for good or bad.

Analyst Rob Sanders says: ‘In terms of impact on the UK stock market, it has been the chancellors of the exchequer that typically have done long-term damage. For example, Nigel Lawson introduced a tax on pension fund surpluses in 1988 before Gordon Brown abolished the 20% tax credit that pension funds could reclaim on dividends paid by British companies in 1997.

‘Hopefully, the chancellor in the new government will have some enterprising ideas to stimulate economic growth while having little room for fiscal manoeuvring and ideally allowing UK gilt yields to come down – all in all a tough task!’

In all the talk around the introduction British ISA, a policy which Labour has suggested it may retain, arguably not enough airtime was given to the concept of encouraging the much larger pots of money in British pension schemes to invest in British stocks.

Obviously there are arguments around whether this is the right thing to do with money which is invested to provide for people’s retirements, but it would undoubtedly make a much more meaningful difference to the market than the concept of a British ISA which is merely tinkering at the edges given the relative sums of money involved.

The consolidation in the US energy sector continues at pace but a notable feature of the activity is it’s largely centred on seizing larger and larger positions in America’s prime oil and gas real estate in the Permian basin. The growth of US production, led by domestic operators, has been extraordinary as these businesses uncovered the secrets of getting oil out of shale rock.

Output has increased from a low of five million barrels of oil per day (bopd) in 2008 to a record 12.9 million bopd in 2023, the most any country has ever produced. Can the application of technology continue to drive production growth or will these companies have to broaden their horizons to achieve further expansion in the future?

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