If anyone wants an insight into how the market sees the prospects of Donald Trump returning to the White House after next month’s ultra-tight presidential election they should look no further than gold prices and bitcoin.

As we write betting site Oddschecker has the market offering odds of 33/50 on Trump, which equates to a 60% probability of him winning the election. That compares to a 54.5% probability 10 days ago.

In this context, gold is in demand both as a hedge against inflation and also as a safe haven. Amid a perception Trump’s avowed plan to introduce sweeping tariffs on overseas goods would reignite inflationary pressures.

There is also concern in some quarters that Trump’s unpredictability would add to already elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Accordingly, the precious metal has reached new record highs.

Trump’s endorsement of cryptocurrencies, with a plan to make America ‘the crypto capital of the planet’ and build a strategic reserve of Bitcoin is an obvious catalyst for the price of the latter which is back in sight of its 52-week highs at close to $70,000.

Further strength in these assets may well suggest the market sees a Trump victory as increasingly nailed on. However, the market, in tune with the broader consensus, called both the Brexit vote and Trump’s 2016 triumph wrong ahead of time so there’s no guarantee investors will get it right ahead of 5 November.

Whatever the outcome, we could be in for plenty of uncertainty and that may play to gold even if Trump doesn’t win, particularly given both Trump and his rival for the presidency Kamala Harris look set to stretch the US’ public finances even further based on their professed policy platforms. Bank of America analysts observe: ‘If markets become reluctant to absorb all the debt and volatility increases, gold may become the asset of choice.’

In the UK the Budget continues to loom large on the horizon and in this week’s issue Ian Conway looks ahead to some of the more recent speculation about potential measures which could be unveiled on 30 October.

Our pensions columnist Rachel Vahey also answers a question on the fate of the tax-free lump sum allowance and whether this might be in the Treasury’s sights. Next week look out for a snap reaction to the Budget and its impact on your money and the markets.

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