Adobe may need narrative change to fire stock higher

March will be a busy month for creative software supplier Adobe (ADBE:NASDAQ), with fiscal 2025 Q1 earnings after the market close on 12 March, followed by what could be a crucial investors day less than a week later, on 18 March.
This will be a vital opportunity to give investors a welcome dose of optimism after a testing few months, the stock down 20% since early December 2024.
Adobe’s strategic focus on AI integration across its Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud platforms has been a significant driver of growth, with features such as Firefly in Photoshop and Illustrator, enabling users to generate new content, edit images, and create effects with relative ease. Expansion into new markets and strategic acquisitions have further bolstered its growth prospects, yet investors have been getting impatient, with overall growth of 11% last year failing to generate the AI excitement markets were hoping for.
Consensus currently has Adobe growing at around 10% this year and next, so any steer that AI will fire faster expansion will be needed to take hold of the narrative and set the share price moving higher again.
Adobe has consistently beaten quarterly revenue and earnings expectations, yet the share price reaction has often been muted thanks to cautious commentary. The reaction to these upcoming earnings may depend on management's ability to create some excitement about the story.
The company may also be expected to address the competitive threat posed by Shutterstock (SSTK:NYSE) and Getty Images (GETY:NYSE) after the two rival image providers agreed a $3.7 billion merger at the start of this year.
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